Michael Brozio

Finance, Economics & Management. Oh and extreme music.

Read this first

23rd June 2016. Decision time is here.

The day has arrived.
23 June. The long awaited referendum: Will UK stay or will it go.
As markets have been wobbling all around with the value of the pound, the campaigners have been in 5th gear for last 2 days. London was impossible to traverse yesterday without bumping into a remain loud mouth. Stickers, posters, flyers! All being thrown onto the desperate public in her daily rushed fury.
The few and far in between leavers shouted their case desperately. But they were never left alone by the big and numerous remain camp. The leavers would not find isolation in their flight for opinions smite. They would always be accompanied willingly or not, by a brisk flurry of remain folk.

Nature had its say as well. With overnight and continuing: thunder, lightning and showers. As the heavens meticulously opened and ruined morning commuters’ life, nature has spoken. A vote will require...

Continue reading →


The Tech Saturation Situation

Did apple just reaffirm many casual analysts predictions of the tech market saturation?
It might be the case. With the company announcing its first ever “grand-daddy” iPhone sales fall and revenue quarterly decrease for over a decade, the stock started tanking by around 8% in after hours trading. Of course selling 51.2 million handsets compared to 61.2 million the same second fiscal quarter might not seem like a big impact maker. After all its a strong brand in already established markets. Its reach in developing is questionable however. But this decrease is of around 17%! Almost a fifth less handsets sold than last year. Is this a sign that the 6S last year wasn’t such a big “innovation” and “trend” setter as the products before? Most likely. Even Apple admit that and like to “point out” that the Iphone 6 was a sales “anomaly”. But if that is so, why are customers begging for the...

Continue reading →


2016 - The scary year of group-think? Some observations.

I am already starting to think what we will remember 2016 for. And its slowly becoming very apparent. With the US presidential race getting extremely heated and revealing its stereotypical black & white sides. With the Ghostbusters movie boasting Adam Sandler level humour and defending itself with an fan-breaking all female cast. With the Oscars shaking its liberal moral superiority with a whole 3 hour show focused on feeding through the message that roles for minorities should be emphasized. This is the year where Twitter continues to tumble not only in share price but also in active user numbers and fresh sign ups, where its desperately trying to satisfy a morally better select few(By establishing an Internal Safety Council with questionable members).

What I am trying to demonstrate is what we are seeing a 2016 in which collective groups regardless of their righteousness and worth of...

Continue reading →


Overdue doom explained

The post 2009 clean up has never been dully finalized. Instead we been drowning in asset bubbles, in enormous sizes such as the student loans of US or the Chinese construction mania. Other smaller notable contenders are the UK housing craze fueled by the governments fetish with raising house prices through schemes with positive happy names such as “Help to buy”.

The truth however is that these misguided government policies are extreme in similarity to the sub-prime mortgage crash that brought the whole world down to its knees in 2008 and 2009.
Ridiculously leveraged and unsubstantiated promises of value where there is none. Today with abundance of liquidity being force fed to banks at 0% is guiding them to absurdly risky investments and derivative filled balance sheets which none understands.
Déjà vu is immense.
The pain has to come. And it surely will.

With chief financial...

Continue reading →


The game of needs

The never-ending question of who needs who more. This is of course referring to the sudden “dilemma” among european union skeptics about Greece debt woes and their inclusion in the eurozone. But the other side of the coin is Germans need to keep Greece afloat. Why?
Cause Germany is the biggest benefactor of the eurozone system. Without it the Deutsche Mark wouldve been one of the strongest currencies in the world. This would obviously kill its export powerhouse industry which has been running a trade surplus since the 50s. The surplus of course strengthened when the eurozone partnership began in 2002.

Germany Surplus histogram

So I do find this whole debacle about Greece leaving the eurozone fairly amusing. Firstly it will never happen. The destruction of confidence in the “system” would be overwhelming and would take years to recover. The idealogy behind the euro is trust and stability. This cannot be...

Continue reading →


Favourite albums of the year 2014

So end of year is coming and its time to decide which albums that I have devoured this year have been exceptional. There were some very good releases which stayed with me and still live on my ipod.
Here come my favourite listens of 2014!

10

Agalloch - The Serpent & The Sphere

What is it? Atmospheric black metal.

What for? Experiencing the woods in your seat.


9

Judas Priest - Redeemer of Souls

What is it? Britain’s flagship heavy metal comeback album.

What for? Good adrenaline rush to push you through your jog?!


8

Savn - Savn

What is it? Rock & Folk Metal from Norway fronted by a wonderful voice.

What for? Those days where catchy songs and easy listening is prescribed.


7

Deathstars - The Perfect Cult

What is it? Catchy Symphonic Gothic Metal from Sweden.

What for? Power-cord heavy days with extremely cheesy lyrical content.

...

Continue reading →


Oil ↓ Stocks ↑?

The OPEC meeting happened on 27th of November and what was expected did not happen. The falling price of oil was not not subdued with the typical restraint on production. A much smarter and long term impacting tactic was decided upon. Keep production at steady levels, oversupplying the market and letting the price drift off to the lows of the abyss. Will competition last?
Now the test has began.

OilChartNovember.png

Reason is simple and we all know it. The Saudis want to stress test the willingness of the american shale revolution. How much suffering will they be willing to take. How many unprofitable ventures will continue and for how long?
The most worrying sign seen thus far was with the S&P500 reaction to the ordeal. Such big divergence last seen in 2007/8 and we know where that ended up.

fx_hedgers gap.png

Maybe this is just a sign that investors are going along with the public consensus that this is just a tax...

Continue reading →


The World Divide. The new BRICS standard?

When one does research into economic division into todays world standing a scary revelation can come alight. Four concentrated bodies in this world make up 65% of the economy. The world economy. These are EU, China, Japan and US. The remaining 35% is made up from the 157 other nations. Being stand outs from this category can be seen as Brazil, Russia, India, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Korea, Indonesia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Most of these contribute between 1 to 3% of global output.

What about the rest? The other 147 nations? Each one with their own flag, anthem and pride? Well most do not each even reach 1% of global output. One of these could not be present tomorrow and the world would not feel its impact. Scary phenomenon or just dark realities of today’s economic world?
Well the wealth concentration among nations is as starkly skewed as it is within nations.

So why is there a...

Continue reading →


The atmosphere of commerciality

People adapt to communities around them. As noticed from a recent trip to Europes love capital Paris, one can judge the constant change in people behaviour from both tourist and locals. Fashion, Behaviour and Mood all blends in together the people which are entwined within. The only difference that stays apart is the language. Some loud, some delicate, some mildly offensive. The international community seems happy.

View →